BOOKS

International Relations in the Cyber Age:
The Co-Evolution Dilemma (2019)

 

A foundational analysis of the co-evolution of the internet and international relations, examining resultant challenges for individuals, organizations, firms, and states.

In our increasingly digital world, data flows define the international landscape as much as the flow of materials and people. How is cyberspace shaping international relations, and how are international relations shaping cyberspace? In this book, Nazli Choucri and David D. Clark offer a foundational analysis of the co-evolution of cyberspace (with the internet at its core) and international relations, examining resultant challenges for individuals, organizations, and states.

The authors examine the pervasiveness of power and politics in the digital realm, finding that the internet is evolving much faster than the tools for regulating it. This creates a “co-evolution dilemma”—a new reality in which digital interactions have enabled weaker actors to influence or threaten stronger actors, including the traditional state powers. Choucri and Clark develop a new method for addressing control in the internet age, “control point analysis,” and apply it to a variety of situations, including major actors in the international and digital realms: the United States, China, and Google. In doing so they lay the groundwork for a new international relations theory that reflects the reality in which we live—one in which the international and digital realms are inextricably linked and evolving together.

 

Cyberpolitics in International Relations (2012)

 

An examination of the ways the construction of the Internet, with cyberspace as the core, are changing the theory, policy, and practice of international relations.

Cyberspace is widely acknowledged as a fundamental fact of daily life in today's world. Until recently, its political impact was thought to be a matter of low politics—background conditions and routine processes and decisions. Now, however, experts have begun to recognize its effect on high politics—national security, core institutions, and critical decision-making processes. In this book, Nazli Choucri investigates the implications of this new cyberpolitical reality for international relations theory, policy, and practice.

The ubiquity, fluidity, and anonymity of cyberspace have already challenged such concepts as leverage and influence, national security and diplomacy, and borders and boundaries in the traditionally state-centric arena of international relations. Choucri grapples with fundamental questions of how we can take explicit account of cyberspace in the analysis of world politics and how we can integrate the traditional international system with its cyber venues.

After establishing the theoretical and empirical terrain, Choucri examines modes of cyber conflict and cyber cooperation in international relations, the potential for the gradual convergence of cyberspace and sustainability in both substantive and policy terms, and the emergent synergy of cyberspace and international efforts toward sustainable development. The discussion is theoretically driven and empirically grounded, drawing on recent data and analyzing the dynamics of cyberpolitics at individual, state, international, and global levels.

 

Mapping Sustainability:
e-Networking & and Value Chain (2007)

 

New ways of looking at ‘sustainable development’ in integrated and holistic terms, exploring knowledge and knowledge-management of sustainability.

The focus is on three interdependent research initiatives designed to facilitate the management of transitions toward sustainable development. First, mapping sustainability as a knowledge domain, second, contributing to the development of global knowledge e-networking and extending the knowledge value chain, and third, exploring new methods to expand our knowledge and to improve e-networking practices. While the activities differ in nature, scale and scope, they are highly interconnected. It is our hope that, jointly, they will contribute to our common quest for a sustainable future. 

The central theme of this book, connecting its different parts, is about ways of transcending critical barriers to the effective use of knowledge and e-networking. Of special relevance is the development of new approaches to the provision and transmission of knowledge – from local sources to global networks and from global sources to local networks. In many ways, this is a book of theory and methods, as well as policy and performance.

Global Accord:
Environmental Challenges & International Reponses (1993)

 

“A comprehensive look at the incredibly complex set of issues that are encompassed by the concepts of global environment and sustainable development. These issues are examined in systematic, thoroughly documented fashion.... There are throughout this volume rich veins of data and bases for addressing what are arguably the most compelling problems facing the community of nations at the end of the twentieth century.”

Philip ShabecoffNature

The purpose of this book is to develop an integrated approach to interactions between environmental and social systems, and between ecological and decision systems, in order to untangle the connections between human actions and environmental consequences and to improve prospects for concerted global responses to environmental problems. 

Fifteen essays cover theoretical and empirical dimensions, actors and processes, law and economics, and international institutions and systems. Effective management of global environmental problems may become the most significant institutional challenge for the twenty-first century. Each chapter highlights the importance of recognizing differences in perspectives and priorities among nations and of articulating norms for management of the global accords.

 

The Challenge of Japan:
before World War II and after (1992)

 

This book follows Nations in Conflict as the next large scale study of national growth, external expansion, and international violence. At the core of these studies is the theory of lateral pressure.

This book explores the sources and consequences of national growth and external expansion for international security, competition, and warfare. Expansion may take on many forms, each with different consequences. Japan since the Meiji restoration offered an important opportunity for analysis.  The country’s uneven development – shaped by its population resources, and technology – posed serious challenges leading to conflict and war, followed by periods of peace, and then more war – all over a period of one hundred years or so.  A combination of historical narrative and econometric analysis traces the complex challenges before World War I and after, and before World War II and after. 

The major strength of the lateral pressure framework lies in its capacity to provide a causal logic for (a) linking the dynamics of (uneven) growth in a state’s core features in terms of people, technology, and resources, (b) demonstrating empirically the relative strength of these variables in overall state capacity, (c) shaping economic, institutional and political factors, and (d) creating defining conditions for policies and decisions.

 

Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Population and Conflict (1984)

 

Detailed investigations – step by step and in different contexts – of the many ways in which population variables, individually or jointly, contribute to conflict, escalation, and war.

Motivated by Population Dynamics and International Violence (1974) this book begins with 10 prepositions that set the stage for unbundling the population variables on the one hand, and the manifestations of conflict on the other, and puts forth some initial observations of the linkage factors that connect demographic conditions to propensities for hostilities, escalation, and overt violence.  Eight chapters address critical facets of basic factors as well as the linkage process. Attention is initially given to the role of the individual as well as the impacts of groups and aggregations. This is followed by a focus on the economic dimensions of conflict and then, by the political dimensions thereof, on local national and international contexts.

Against this background, two chapters provide important integrating functions in terms of theory and policy.  The first centers on policy. Among the issues examined are the images policy makers have of population, the implications for the military, the role of historical memory, and influences on public policy. The second is on theory. It provides a systematic view of the sources of conflict. Its major contribution is to situate the role of population dynamics – and different population variables – in shaping the interactive trajectory leading to violence known as the conflict spiral.

 

Energy and Development in Latin America (1982)

 

An early attempt to develop empirical perspective on the economics and politics of energy in the region, with all the hazards associated with dilemmas of data coverage and reliability associated with the emergence of a relatively new problem-area.

This book is in four parts.  Each seeks to adopt an empirical as well as policy perspective. Accordingly, the focus is on data availability and macro-economic and policy perspectives. First is attention to the basic parameters of energy in the region with an emphasis on energy in transportation.  Second is attention to economic factors, with a focus on the demographic drivers of economic activity and implications for transportation and development. Third is a policy perspective focusing on the role of government, state petroleum enterprises, and pressure for social adjustment to new and stressful conditions. The fourth part seeks to highlight new influences and new opportunities. A final section addresses implications for transportation and puts forth the alternative criteria for policy choices consistent with different development objectives.

 

International Energy Futures:
Petroleum Prices, Power, and Payments (1981)

 

“… Choucri’s timely study…examines critically the ‘interconnections between political and economic factors in the world energy market….’ (p ix). To an impressive extent the economic simulation analysis contained in her work testifies to this reality…. [this] attests amply to the genuine professionalism and laudable research design acumen of its intellectual architect”.

Christopher JoynerAmerican Political Science Review

This book, with the collaboration of David Scot Ross and Brian Pollins, constructs the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) as a system dynamics model to explore a set of propositions about future price, politics, and market configurations. Central to the analyses is the role of strategic vulnerability as a distinct variable that influences and is influenced by interactions among producers and consumers in a changing market. 

The book is in four parts. Part I reviews the politics of the international petroleum trade. Part II is the intellectual core of the book and focuses on the analytical structure of the IPE model and on the simulation results of interactions among key actors. Part III appraises the model’s results and their implications. Part IV puts forth some tentative assessments of the model’s predictive capacities and highlights alternative prospects for various energy policies given different price situations.

 

Forecasting in International Relations:
Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects (1978)

 

“The book should be required reading for anyone interested in becoming involved in forecasting or using forecasts in international relations, and will be useful to those doing forecasts in other policy areas….”

Philip A. Schrodt, American Political Science Review

The first effort of an international group of scholars to sketch out the boundaries and content of forecasting as applied to international relations. The book is organized in four parts. These focus on: (1) foundational challenges, (2) requirements of theory, (3) methodological applications in international relations, (4) the time perspective in forecasting, and (5) policy analysis in international contexts.  While the challenges are far greater than the tools to address them, the chapters of this book show the full range of intellectual capabilities focusing on forecasting around the date of publication.

 

International Politics of Energy Interdependence (1976) 

 

The energy problem is basically a political one – it emanates from disputes over who controls energy transactions, what the rules of the game are, who gains and who loses, and at what cost to whom.

This is about the worldwide interdependence generated by increased petroleum trade and higher prices, and the constraints on international behavior of virtually all states – created by the events surrounding the historic oil prices hikes of 1973.  It provides a corrective to the overwhelming economic-centric views of these events. The conflicts over petroleum prices, imports and exports, and the distribution of market shares are symptomatic of more basic political differences.

 Part I is an introduction to petroleum politics and the world oil market. Part II examines the new tensions and strategic vulnerabilities that shaped the global order for the remainder of the 20th century. Part III presents a timely introduction to, and some speculates about, the potential effects of alternative energy sources.

 

Nations in Conflict:
National Growth and International Violence (1975)

 

This book examines conflict patterns among great powers from 1870 to 1914 using historical inquiry as well as econometric analysis – thus yielding an integrated narrative based by statistical results and parameter estimates for a system of simultaneous equations.

Each equation in the model represents a “piece” of a dynamic system of simultaneous equations, with the variables signaling the individual factors shaping the overall dynamics over time. Rendered in the form of an econometric model, the system consists of (a) growth and expansion, (b) intersection and collision national of interests, (c) military competition leading to greater military expenditures, (d) alliances and counter-alliances and (e) evidence of violent behavior – all constituting the escalating dynamics of a conflict spiral that, almost inevitably, results in war.

 

Population Dynamics and International Violence (1974)

 

“This volume by Professor Nazli Choucri constitutes a rare effort to explore in a systematic way the connection between outbreaks of violence in international relations and the population dynamics of the system. This book represents a first step toward regaining lost ground; it carries on an informed exploration of a critically important corner of the field, and equally laudably, it presents its material in such a manner that the bulk of the findings form a natural point of departure for new research.”

A. F. K. Organski, The American Political Science Review

This volume is divided into three parts.

Part I is based on an exhaustive study of the literature dealing directly and indirectly with the relations between population dynamics and international violence.

Part II focuses entirely on empirical materials gathered from an examination of violence in the developing world and seeks to explore systematically whether population changes have influenced the beginnings or the outcomes of violent conflicts.

Part III consists of a review of major themes, a section of concluding statements, and a short chapter given over to discussion of issues of policy and research in the field connecting demographic and political behavior.

Phd Thesis

The Perceptual Base of Nonalignment (1967)

 

This study is part of a larger project examining the attitudes and behavior of nonaligned states in the international system. I would like to thank Ole Holsti, Robert C. North, John O. Field, and Jean Veevers for helpful comments. The assistance of the Stanford University Computation Center is also gratefully acknowledged. Throughout this study the tenn nonalignment refers to a policy of official nonparticipation in the Cold War conflict, to be distinguished from other variants of nonalliance like neutrality and isolationism.

Almost two-thirds of the nations in the world have chosen not to join either of the two dominant alliance systems- the Communist or the Western. Most of these states, generally known as the "third world," are Afro-Asian and their nonalignment signifies freedom from constraints imposed by alli- ances with major powers (Rossi, 1963). While it is misleading to consider the non-aligned states as a group homogeneous in attitude and behavior, the degree of varia- tion among them is largely an empirical question. This study examines the attitudinal orientation of three Afro-Asian nations - India, Egypt, and Indonesia-during the latter 1950s and early 1960s, an important period in the development of nonalignment.

Our primary objective is to identify the more general perceptions at the base of this policy. The model of the international system implicit in our analysis is admittedly oversimplified, for the world is more com- plex than simply major powers and non- aligned states. However, for the purpose of systematic analysis, a parsimonous model is more useful than an intricate, though undoubtedly more realistic, portrayal of the international system.

Complete Thesis

Research Article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
Volume: 13 issue: 1, page(s): 57-74
Issue published: March 1, 1969.